This round of rain will be courtesy of a cold front pushing into the Appalachians today into tonight; it will move out and across North Carolina later tonight into tomorrow. The front will be held up at the southern end by Tropical Storm Eta, so we don’t see the front actually come through the Triangle until tomorrow afternoon. This will keep the rain going for much of the next 36 hours, so we are in for a thorough soaking. Some of this rain will be heavy as the system is tapping into the deeper tropical moisture associated with Eta. This will lead to some spells of heavier rain, and rainfall totals between today and tomorrow are expected to be 1-3 inches. The European has us getting hit the hardest, with around 4 inches. This amount of rain will raise concerns for flash flooding, though it does come over an extended stretch which will help to offset some issues. Nonetheless, there will at least be ponding of water on roadways and in poor drainage areas.
The front will move east of the Triangle by tomorrow night, but as it continues to move slowly, there may still be a little rainfall over eastern parts of the Triangle, even into early Friday. By then, the remaining circulation of Eta will be offshore, east of Georgia. High pressure will move into the Ohio Valley, giving us a north wind behind the front which will start to bring in drier air. Clouds should begin to break in the afternoon, but the true clearing likely waits until Friday night.
We’re gaining confidence in the weekend forecast now that the models are in better agreement on Eta being out of the Gulf of Mexico. As the high builds by to the north of us Saturday, we should have sun for the most part, though low-level flow will still be easterly, leading to at least scattered clouds. This high will also bring in cooler air, and we will top out at or below normal despite the sun. The high is still over us Sunday with another front coming eastward through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys; this could bring us more clouds, but the day should still be dry.
With upper-level support passing well to our north Sunday night into Monday, that front should come through here dry, with just some cloudiness. A large area of high pressure will build in behind it for Tuesday and Wednesday. Initially with a north to northwest flow we could see some lingering clouds in the area; it will also be rather brisk and chilly for Tuesday. Wednesday will be sunnier and will at least feel better with less wind.
Have a great Hump Day!
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