MRAK’s crystal ball: Sullivan to win by 7 points over Gross – Must Read Alaska

By | November 11, 2020

Based on Election Day returns, the number of uncounted absentee and early ballots, and what is known about these voters, Alan Gross has no realistic path to victory.

Some 62,000 votes will be counted and announced on Tuesday, Nov. 10, after 5 pm. The votes will be announced in two batches, one at 5 pm, and one much later in the evening, when election officials finish their work for the day.
 
Assuming there are approximately 147,600 ballots, and 25% are from registered Republicans, and another 25% are from registered Democrats, Gross would need to win more than 90% of remaining ballots cast by registered Undeclared, non-partisan, and third party voters.
 
This figure does not take into account the third-party candidate John Wayne Howe – who took approximately 5% of the vote on election day.
 
When all ballots are counted, the MRAK crystal ball predicts that Dan Sullivan will beat Gross decisively:
 
Current Vote Totals:
 
·Dan Sullivan: 118,978 (62.22%)
·Al Gross: 61,362 (32.09%)
·John Wayne Howe: 10,532 (5.51%)
 
Senator Sullivan leads Al Gross by a resounding 57,616 votes.
 
Based on information from the Alaska Division of Elections on Nov. 6, of the 131,536 uncounted absentee and early ballots:
o   34,257 ballots cast by registered Republicans
o   30,063 ballots cast by registered Democrats
o   67,216 ballots cast by registered Undeclared, Nonpartisan, and others.
 
If all registered Republicans vote for Dan Sullivan:
 
· Dan Sullivan will have: 153,235
· Gross would need to receive over 97% of the remaining 97,279 ballots from registered Democrats, undeclared, nonpartisan and other ballots.
 
Election Projection:

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If Sullivan receives 20% of remaining ballots and John Wayne Howe receives 3% of undeclared, nonpartisan and other ballots (67,216 ballots):
 
13,443 for Sullivan 166,678 vote total
51.66%, a win by +7.3%

81,820 for Gross
143,182 vote total – 44.36%

10,532 for Howe
12,906 vote total – 3.99%
 
(+7.3%) win for Sullivan.

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